|Lockdown in Rome's Testaccio market (note 1-meter distancing strips) and San Francisco|
I had a great gush of it on Monday, watching Donald Trump eat humble pie through clenched teeth, if you’ll forgive the mixed metaphor. After weeks of “We have it very well under control” and “One day – it’s like a miracle – it will disappear,” the current occupant of the White House, the same guy who two years ago closed down the American pandemic preparedness taskforce, had been forced to admit that coronavirus is a real threat and to recite a litany of guidelines for controlling the epidemic. Never one to be outdone by the competition, Trump went the Centers for Disease Control one better: the previous day they had advised no gatherings of over 50 people, he said no more than 10.
Friends have written to me about hearing a nurse in Hawaii say the coronavirus story was “all hype,” a gym mate who thought covid-19 was “just the flu”… According to recent Kaiser Family Foundation polls, an incredible 46% of the US population trust what the President tells them about the coronavirus, and 44% think he’s doing a good job at handling it. That poll was taken between March 11th and 15th, before Trump made his 180º policy swing. What are those gullible Trumpers going to think now? Hopefully they’ll flip in turn, start taking the pandemic seriously, and stop being such a threat to themselves and others.
I must say, though, that my Trumpward Schadenfreude was far outweighed by relief. If the CDC had been allowed at last to make some concrete recommendations, with Trump backing them – if denial is no longer the Administration’s party line – there is now, I think, a good chance the US will escape the worst-case scenario.
Everywhere in the US the social distancing message is sinking in. Here in the San Francisco Bay Area, my current place of refuge, they have now instituted a “shelter-in-place” ordinance on the Italian model. Its rules are somewhat less rigorous – unlike the Italians, we’re allowed to go out for a stroll if we want, and can use our cars if we want to go shopping or hiking outside our immediate neighborhood. And thus far it’s much less rigorous in practice, relying on voluntary compliance rather than on the police cars that roam the streets of Rome in search of errant pedestrians. Between March 11th and March 18th, Italian cops had stopped and checked 1,226,169 people for compliance with the covid-19 ordinance, and given out 51,892 fines. Nobody’s been sent to jail yet, but sentences could theoretically be for up to 12 years.
Where the US is still failing abysmally is in applying the most important antiepidemic tool according to the World Health Organization: “test, test, test.” Anyone with symptoms of possible infection should be tested, their contacts should be traced and tested in turn, and everyone with positive tests plus everyone in each of their households should be quarantined (it’s now clear that the disease can be transmitted even before symptoms develop). As of early this weekItaly had tested 148,657 people; the United States, with a population five times greater, has only tested 41,552, and in a fashion more haphazard than systematic.
Alvin and I have been watching a lot of CNN, whose sole subject by now is the coronavirus. We’ve been shocked by two things: First, the endless direct-to-consumer ads for powerful prescription drugs with potentially fatal side effects, a criminal practice nearly unique to the US. Second, the way coverage of the pandemic has been virtually limited to the US – if it weren’t for a feelgood clip or two of Italians singing on balconies, you’d never know there was coronavirus beyond our borders.
Buried along with any foreign news has been the extraordinary aid that China has been giving countries badly affected by the pandemic to help cope. The Chinese government has started sending Italy everything from coronavirus test kits to ventilators, as well as teams of physicians and nurses experienced in treating the disease. And did you know that Jack Ma, the wealthiest man in China, has promised to give the United States 500,000 coronavirus test kits and 1 million face masks? They left Shanghai this Monday, and may have continued on to the US the same day on military aircraft, for eventual distribution by the CDC. His generous donation, by itself, may make a substantial contribution to stemming the American epidemic.
By the way, Joe Biden was mistaken when he said at Sunday’s debate that the US had refused kits from the World Health Organization.
The Italian lockdown seems to be starting to bear fruit. Admittedly today’s coronavirus news looked bad: Italy has now passed China in total number of deaths. But that death rate, awful though it looks, is starting to rise less rapidly day by day than it was ten days ago, and the growth in the number of covid-19 patients in intensive care has similarly been slowing down (see my charts at the bottom).
The growth in confirmed cases has been improving less strikingly, but you can’t count on those data because they are so dependent on the amount of testing that’s being done.
Let me go back for a moment to the last Democratic debate. Another of Biden’s bad moments was a misguided attack on Italy, when he pivoted from a question about coronavirus into making a dig at Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-for-all. “With all due respect to Medicare-for-all, you have a single-payer system in Italy. It doesn’t work there. It has nothing to do with Medicare-for-all.”
I’d guess Sanders hadn’t been prepped for that particular line of attack, because he didn’t respond, as he should have, that if there hadn’t been a National Health System in Italy things would have been much worse. Aside from the well-organized medical response per se, all Italians knew from the get-go that if they needed testing or treatment they wouldn’t pay a penny out of pocket, so nobody hesitated to seek medical services. And the Italian welfare state helped greatly: all regular wage earners too sick to work, caring for a sick family member, or laid off because of closings knew they would keep earning their salary, or a good chunk of it, for many months.
Italian medicine is terribly underfunded and undersupplied (it has 1/3 as many ICU beds as the US, and spends 1/3 as much on health care), and I haven’t hesitated to point out its uneven quality. But in this crisis the system has really come through, to the extent that resources allow it. The response was well-coordinated, physicians stay efficiently informed of the rapidly shifting national guidelines, private hospitals are commandeered to meet public need, and medical staff are giving their all and beyond; as of today, 13 Italian doctors have died of covid-19.
Canada, with 1/10th the US population,has conducted almost the same number tests as the US. Our universal health care will be a help, but there are concerns about supplies and equipment. Provinces and cities vary in stringency of social distance policies, roughly proportional to number of cases identified. Prince Edward Island may have erred by announcing it was about to shut down liquor and cannabis stores, setting off a rush of customers.ReplyDelete
Very interesting, thanks for all the info. I see online that there have been ten count 'em ten deaths from covid-19 so far in Canada. Probably the testing and contact tracing has helped enormously. About substances, all I can attest to is that here in Berkeley the shelves are still full of wine.ReplyDelete
The worst hit of all are the huge numbers of people without savings, in rented shared flats, working "in nero" paid under the table, without contract, without benefits, without anything, cleaners, caretakers, babysitters, call center workers, restaurant workers (so many without contracts), etc.ReplyDelete
It's terrible. But imagine the US, where in addition they have to worry about whether they can pay for medical treatment...Delete
p.s. great column, and interesting but chilling to know what is going on back there. Great that you'll be on tv.ReplyDelete
Thanks, Elaine. The coronavirus response in the US has been totally haphazard, but now finally is starting to happen, and people are beginning to be tested (largely thanks to the hand of the Chinese tho you'd never know it from the news media). I'm cautiously optimistic. (who knows whether the TV thing will ever actually come off)Delete
You said Biden was mistaken when he said the US had refused the WHO offer of test kits, but then linked to the NYTimes fact check that said his statement was true. This is confusing. Clearly universal health coverage is preferable to private insurance based health care but the assumptions here about numbers of cases when the reporting from so many countries is suspect and the testing is so disperate. I'm not sure when we will know what really is happening in so many countries. Good luck to you and all of us.ReplyDelete
Wow, thanks for pointing out the discrepancy. Actually what I wrote was correct - Biden was mistaken - but I used a fact check published too soon after the debate and since rectified. I've replaced it with a later, better reference: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/who-coronavirus-tests-cdc/index.html. I'd be interested to hear more about what you're getting about re assumptions about numbers of cases etc. I try to avoid discussing numbers of diagnosed cases as too dependent on the rate of testing, but concentrate on the rates of death and of cases severe enough to need intensive care, which are likely to be more reliable. The rate of ICU increase in Italy, btw, which had fallen to barely over 10% yesterday, is down to 6.3% today which is very encouraging.Delete
"an incredible 46% of the US population trust what the President tells them about the coronavirus, and 44% think he’s doing a good job at handling it." That this surprises you doesn't surprise me. But, then, you quote the WaPo uncritically as a legitimate source. Trump is casually unreliable; WaPo and company are deliberately mendacious. Some prefer one type of liar, some the other. Does the entire Left suffer from the Gell-Mann amnesia effect? In this case, the WaPo omits the fact that Obama massively expanded the NSC and Trump cut it back closer to the Bush era size. The lie of omission, such a great propaganda weapon for Gell-Mann sufferers.ReplyDelete
Up to date U.S. testing numbers:
Of course, the testing fiasco was a combined achievement of the CDC and the FDA--unaccountable, incompetent bureaucrats. And a further reason for the size of America's current epidemic is that public health "experts" like Osterholm and Garrett were saying that quarantines are useless, that cutting air traffic from China is pointless: More idiots occupying credentialed sinecures. Independent public intellectuals like NN Taleb and Greg Cochran, in contrast, called it correctly early. But, just as no public facing economist got fired after incompetence in 2007 and no expert (like tom friedman at the Times) got fired for incompetence about the Iraq invasion--I'm perfectly confident there will be zero accountability for the mistakes this time either--whether Trump's or the CDC's or Garrett's.
Thank you for the link documenting that the US has finally stepped up testing, doing about 180,000 tests since March 17th, the date of my stats. I agree with very little else that you have written, but I thought it worthwhile to post for other people's interest.Delete
Your bias against Trump clouds objectivity and is untrue. He’s doing a great job re the virus with very few deaths. Perhaps stop bashing Trump and pen more tales about Italy and how we should be more like them, eh? 😳ReplyDelete
If Mr. Trump hadn't been saying as late as March 15th “it’s something we have tremendous control of” we wouldn't have lost 3 precious weeks when the epidemic could have truly been brought under control. To the extent that any job was being done, whether great or not, it was by governors and mayors since the federal government was providing not even support, encouragement, or guidelines, much less concrete aid.Delete
Amazing perspective Susan. Reading this was so much deeper than anything we can get on our US news, even BBC World. But, you've been here, Rome, and seen so much.ReplyDelete
Reading this was even a bit more interesting for me since I met you many times in the 70s when you were visiting Steve and Gloria. Don't know if you remember me. But, I'm their friend Tim. I lived a few blocks away from them in Venice.
Stay well and keep blogging!!!!
Thanks so so much, Tim.Delete